Created 12/7/2025Active
are we in a bubble?
Estimated Resolution
Dec 31, 2026In ~13 months
Resolution Criteria
Resolution will be based on a consensus of major financial analyses and reports from reputable sources (e.g., Bloomberg, Financial Times, or IMF) by the end of 2026, determining whether the global stock market exhibits characteristics of a bubble, such as unsustainable valuations or speculative trading behavior followed by a significant correction (20% or more decline in major indices like S&P 500 or MSCI World within a 6-month period).
Normalized Question
Is the global stock market in a financial bubble as of December 2025?
142 posts analyzed
Probabilities
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:06 AMSnapshots: 46
LeadingYes, the market is in a bubble
50.3%
No, the market is not in a bubble
49.7%
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:06 AM
Probability over time
AI Analysis
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Grok Analysis
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