Created 12/7/2025Active
who will win the 2028 us presidential election?
Estimated Resolution
Nov 15, 2028In ~36 months
Resolution Criteria
Resolution occurs when the Associated Press or a consensus of major news outlets (e.g., CNN, NBC, ABC) officially calls the winner of the 2028 US Presidential Election based on electoral vote projections, or when the results are certified by the states and Congress.
Normalized Question
Who will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7,515 posts analyzed
Probabilities
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:14 AMSnapshots: 400
LeadingMarco Rubio
32.1%
Donald Trump
20.0%
Gavin Newsom
20.0%
Kamala Harris
20.0%
JD Vance
7.9%
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:14 AM
Probability over time
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