Created 12/7/2025Active

when will elon musk reach mars?

Estimated Resolution

Dec 31, 2035In ~122 months

Resolution Criteria

Resolution occurs when Elon Musk is confirmed to have landed on Mars, as reported by credible sources such as SpaceX official announcements, NASA statements, or major news outlets like Reuters or the Associated Press.

Normalized Question

When will Elon Musk personally travel to Mars?

171 posts analyzed

Probabilities

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:13 AM

Snapshots: 79

LeadingAfter December 31, 2040 or Never

29.7%

Between January 1, 2036 and December 31, 2040

29.6%

Between January 1, 2031 and December 31, 2035

29.5%

By December 31, 2030

11.2%

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:13 AM

Probability over time

AI Analysis

Get AI-powered analysis of this market using Grok with web search.

Grok Analysis

• Web search enabled

xAI Grok