Created 12/7/2025Active
when will sam altman leave openAI?
Estimated Resolution
Dec 31, 2026In ~13 months
Resolution Criteria
Resolution occurs when Sam Altman officially announces his departure as CEO of OpenAI, or when OpenAI issues an official statement confirming his departure, whichever comes first. If no departure occurs by 2026-12-31, the 'After 2026' outcome will be selected.
Normalized Question
When will Sam Altman leave OpenAI as CEO?
157 posts analyzed
Probabilities
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:07 AMSnapshots: 67
LeadingAfter 2026 or never
29.6%
During 2025
25.1%
During 2026
25.0%
By the end of 2024
20.3%
Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:07 AM
Probability over time
AI Analysis
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