Created 12/10/2025Active

when will betelge

Estimated Resolution

Dec 31, 2100In ~914 months

Resolution Criteria

Resolution will occur when major astronomical observatories (e.g., NASA, ESA) confirm that Betelgeuse has undergone a supernova event, based on observed brightness increase and spectral analysis.

Normalized Question

When will Betelgeuse go supernova?

60 posts analyzed

Probabilities

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:05 AM

Snapshots: 14

LeadingAfter 2100 or never

64.6%

Between 2050 and 2100

16.6%

Between 2030 and 2050

12.0%

Before 2030

6.9%

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:05 AM

Probability over time

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