Created 12/7/2025Active

When will OpenAI deploy their next model?

Estimated Resolution

Dec 31, 2026In ~13 months

Resolution Criteria

Resolution occurs when OpenAI officially announces or deploys a new AI model through a press release, blog post, or public statement on their official channels (e.g., website, X account). If no announcement occurs by December 31, 2026, the outcome will be 'After December 31, 2026 or not at all'.

Normalized Question

When will OpenAI announce or deploy their next AI model after December 7, 2025?

220 posts analyzed

Probabilities

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:10 AM

Snapshots: 101

LeadingApril 1 to June 30, 2026

23.1%

Before March 31, 2026

20.2%

July 1 to September 30, 2026

19.9%

October 1 to December 31, 2026

19.9%

After December 31, 2026 or not at all

16.9%

Last updated 12/23/2025, 12:00:10 AM

Probability over time

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